New York Commercial Real Estate Market Trends: Is Now a Good Time to Lease an Office?

Whether now is a good time to lease an office in New York depends more on your own calendar than on commercial real estate market trends. If your lease ends in 12 to 18 months, the search should be starting, whatever the headlines say. What the latest quarter changed is leverage: our Q2 2026 report shows landlords giving less off the asking rent and the better blocks leasing quickly, with AI and tech demand concentrated in Midtown South. Free rent and the improvement allowance remain on the table. Holding out for a general discount has not paid lately; starting early with real alternatives has.

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Updated 2026-10-03 · Nomad Group

With 12 to 18 months left, the calendar comes first

A lease that ends in 12 to 18 months gives you something the market cannot: time. That window is long enough to tour real alternatives, bring one of them to a letter of intent and make your current landlord price the risk of losing you. Inside six months most of that advantage is gone, because a floor built to order no longer fits the time left and the landlord knows it.

So the first question is not what the market is doing. It is what date you must be in a space, and how many weeks lie between now and then. Renew or relocate sets out the comparison between staying and moving.

What changed in a tenant's leverage this year

Per our Q2 2026 market report, with data through June 30, 2026, Manhattan availability was 14.5%, against 17.6% a year earlier. The taking-rent index, a measure of how close signed rents come to asking rents, rose to about 94.8% from 92.5%.

Read together: there is less to choose from, and landlords are discounting less. A tenant who waits is not waiting for a falling price. The leverage that is left is the kind you bring yourself, a second floor you would really take and enough time to walk to it.

What is driving demand: AI and tech in Midtown South

The report counts 21 leases by AI and tech tenants in the first half of 2026, totaling 719,200 square feet, and places close to 70% of that footage in the Midtown South orbit. Tech and media companies were looking for 8.8 million square feet across the borough, and AI firms accounted for 22.1% of the total.

For a company of 20 or 50 people this matters because those tenants want what you want: prewar loft floors with flexible layouts along the Broadway corridor. The good ones do not stay on the market long.

The concessions still on offer

The taking-rent index only measures discounting off the asking rent. It is silent on free rent and the improvement allowance, and both remain part of most packages. With the face rent firm, that is where a negotiation now does its work, and a longer term is what earns more of each.

Class A or Class B, and why NoMad floors are shown

The letters are loose labels for building quality, chosen by landlords. Class A covers new and fully renovated towers; Class B covers sound older buildings, which in Midtown South mostly means prewar lofts. The report notes that growth-stage tenants' rents sort by building quality more than by neighborhood, and it puts the Class A premium over Class B at 25.5% Downtown in the first quarter of 2026. Tour both, and compare them on total cost across the term.

The floors below are in NoMad, inside the Midtown South corridor the report describes, the stretch of Broadway from 10th Street to 34th Street. Much of the demand above is landing there, so it is the most direct place to see what that demand is competing for.

NoMad office space available now

Live from our listings · cheapest first

4 offices are available in NoMad right now, from 5,621 to 12,500 square feet, asking $57 to $90 per square foot per year. The NoMad median is $62.

Floors: 4
Sizes: 5,621-12,500 sq ft
Asking rent: $57-$90 / sq ft
Median: $62 / sq ft

Everything available in NoMad, with photos and rents →

The full guide

This page is the short answer. The long one, with the numbers worked through, is here:

Should we renew early or hold out for a softer market?

Open the conversation early, and bring an alternative. A renewal is a negotiation, and your leverage is the landlord's cost of replacing you. The readings in our report do not point to broad softening, so holding out mostly spends your time.

Are landlords still giving free rent?

Yes. Free months and an allowance toward the buildout are still part of most New York office deals. What narrowed over the past year is the discount off the asking rent itself, according to the report's taking-rent index.

Does AI leasing affect a company that is not in tech?

Indirectly. AI and tech tenants are concentrated in Midtown South, so the good floors there lease quickly. A company that is flexible on neighborhood can look where availability is higher. Coworking, sublease or a private HQ covers the options if the timing is tight.

What if our lease ends in less than six months?

Then speed decides. Move-in ready space, furnished or prebuilt, is typically two to four weeks from signature to occupancy, and building a floor to order takes 10 to 16 weeks. Tell a broker the date first; a broker reaches out within the hour during business hours.

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